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A money manager is talking to God.
“God, how long is a million years?”
God answers, “To me, it’s about a minute.”
“God, how much is a million dollars?”
“To me, it’s a penny.”
“God, may I have a penny?”
“Wait a minute.”
-      As quoted by Mark Grant

It has been an exceptionally news-filled month. The Russian invasion of Ukraine was expected to move the markets lower. They barely budged. Attention then focused on ISIS in Iraq and how the US was being drawn back into Middle


Overall markets have pause, which is healthy for longs (as you need pauses and pull-backs to meaningfully move higher in a sustainable fashion). This week saw a number of analysts up earnings estimates as they foresee strength in earnings;  up 11% for this year and up ~14% for next year. The economic cylinders that stand-out as appearing not to be firing properly right now are China (loafing along, nothing special), Japan needs to overcome that sales tax (the country’s gross


A disappointing jobs report this AM was shrugged off by the markets (the jobs numbers were positive, but nothing to write home about) — the strange thing that has happened in the labor force is that 18 million people since 2007 have left it, another 300K this year — so say you are 60 years old and working at Walmart and Obamacare comes along, you are not going to leave your job because you are holding on to your job


Coding specialists have observed a serious limitation with Nakamoto’s (the inventor of Bitcoin) Bitcoin design is that its code desperately needs correction if Bitcoin is to fulfill its global ambitions — the Bitcoin network cannot process more than seven transactions a second.

So as more people shy away from price speculation and instead pay for goods and services that processing capacity must increase. Right now, ~one Bitcoin transaction happens every second, so there’s still some room there. But companies like Visa process near


Market & Sectors

It was a good week for equity markets (if you are net long), and a good month for that too. Transports have done well this month, master limited partnerships have done well also – it is all about ‘yield’ and the market is still the only place to get it; master limited partnerships are yielding 5% right now, telecoms 4.5%, Europe 4%, utilities 3.8%, consumer staples 3.5%, China 3.4%, REITs ~4.5% — put those 7 groups together

Chinese Power Consumption Crash

Market & Sectors

‘Heads-up - Chinese Power Consumption Crashes’

As stated last week, most eyes will be focused on the geopolitical issues, however the market has a knack of shrugging-off bad news — despite what appears to be globally increasing risks, the financial markets have seemed relatively unfazed. So it really boils down to earnings and economy prognostications and data (Central bankers will be meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo., next week are set to discuss labor market dynamics – so that

I make my own Sector Rotation

Market & Sectors

‘The market is waiting for something to scare it – otherwise steady as she goes’

Going forward, the markets are going to be driven first by geopolitics, secondly by monetary stimulus (which continues – ‘don’t fight the Fed’), and thirdly by the economy (which is reflected in earnings), and finally by valuations – I would point out on valuations that Price to Earnings, Price to Book, the Q-ratio (which is price to replacement value), they are all


“After 28 years at this post, and 22 years before this in money management, I can sum up whatever wisdom I have accumulated this way: The trick is not to be the hottest stock-picker, the winning forecaster, or the developer of the neatest model; such victories are transient. The trick is to survive. Performing that trick requires a strong stomach for being wrong, because we are all going to be wrong more often than we expect. The future is not

Gross domestic product is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a year, or over a given period of time.

The top three mainstream highlights (positives) of the GDP number were
1) Inventories added +1.7 – that number is big! However, even the government acknowledges that the first GDP numbers out are incomplete and as time goes on more data gets assimilated and there is ALWAYS lots of revisions. Plus the act of inventory stuffing is likely at play, in part (A.K.A. ‘channel stuffing’, which is the business practice where a company, or a sales force within a company, inflates its